San Francisco real estate vs inflation: did it beat the dollar?
106% × 46%
Updated June 1, 2026 · Redfin · BLS / FRED (CPIAUCNS)
Since 2013, San Francisco real estate is up 106% while U.S. consumer prices rose 46%. San Francisco real estate far outpaced inflation — but the ride was brutal: its worst drop was 24%. Figures in U.S. dollars.
Base 100 since 2013
Why compare San Francisco home prices (US$/m²) and U.S. inflation (CPI-U)
San Francisco anchors one of the most expensive housing markets in the country, where the Bay Area tech economy and a tightly constrained, hilly peninsula have pushed prices to coastal extremes for decades. Its trajectory tracks the technology cycle closely: it ran hot through successive booms, dipped in the dot-com bust and again in 2008, then surged with the late-2010s tech expansion. The pandemic added a twist many recognize, as remote work loosened demand in the urban core even as it stayed costly. Prices here are also among the most volatile of major metros.
Returns by window
| Window | San Francisco home prices (US$/m²) | U.S. inflation (CPI-U) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 14% | 4% |
| 5 years | 7% | 24% |
| 10 years | 25% | 39% |
| since 2013 | 106% | 46% |
The price of return: risk
| Asset | Annual volatility | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco real estate | 15% | -24% |
| Inflation (CPI) | 1% | -2% |
$10,000 in each, since 2013
| Asset | Value today |
|---|---|
| San Francisco real estate | $20,583 |
| Inflation (CPI) | $14,553 |
Frequently asked questions
Did San Francisco real estate beat inflation?
Over the period, San Francisco real estate returned 106% while U.S. consumer prices rose 46%. The gap is what the asset earned beyond simply keeping pace with the dollar.
Does this account for the dollar losing value?
Yes. The inflation line is U.S. CPI, the measure of how much purchasing power the dollar lost over the same period. Returns above that line are gains in real terms.
Does a higher return mean a better investment?
Not on its own. A higher return came with higher risk here — the volatility and the largest drop on this page show how much the value swung along the way.
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Descriptive, educational content computed from official public data. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.