Phoenix real estate vs inflation: did it beat the dollar?
219% × 46%
Updated June 1, 2026 · Redfin · BLS / FRED (CPIAUCNS)
Since 2013, Phoenix real estate is up 219% while U.S. consumer prices rose 46%. Phoenix real estate far outpaced inflation — but the ride was brutal: its worst drop was 15%. Figures in U.S. dollars.
Base 100 since 2013
Why compare Phoenix home prices (US$/m²) and U.S. inflation (CPI-U)
Phoenix anchors the Sun Belt desert metro of Maricopa County, one of the fastest-growing areas in the country, drawing retirees, manufacturing and a recent wave of semiconductor investment. Its housing market has a well-documented boom-bust record: it fell among the hardest in the 2008 crash, recovered slowly, then surged again after 2020 as remote workers and California buyers arrived, before cooling as rates rose. Land is comparatively plentiful and construction has historically been quick to respond, which has kept the metro in the mid affordability tier even after repeated run-ups, well below the coastal peaks.
Returns by window
| Window | Phoenix home prices (US$/m²) | U.S. inflation (CPI-U) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 year | -0% | 4% |
| 5 years | 18% | 24% |
| 10 years | 109% | 39% |
| since 2013 | 219% | 46% |
The price of return: risk
| Asset | Annual volatility | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix real estate | 6% | -15% |
| Inflation (CPI) | 1% | -2% |
$10,000 in each, since 2013
| Asset | Value today |
|---|---|
| Phoenix real estate | $31,930 |
| Inflation (CPI) | $14,553 |
Frequently asked questions
Did Phoenix real estate beat inflation?
Over the period, Phoenix real estate returned 219% while U.S. consumer prices rose 46%. The gap is what the asset earned beyond simply keeping pace with the dollar.
Does this account for the dollar losing value?
Yes. The inflation line is U.S. CPI, the measure of how much purchasing power the dollar lost over the same period. Returns above that line are gains in real terms.
Does a higher return mean a better investment?
Not on its own. A higher return came with higher risk here — the volatility and the largest drop on this page show how much the value swung along the way.
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Descriptive, educational content computed from official public data. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.