Chicago real estate vs inflation: did it beat the dollar?
171% × 46%
Updated June 1, 2026 · Redfin · BLS / FRED (CPIAUCNS)
Since 2013, Chicago real estate is up 171% while U.S. consumer prices rose 46%. Chicago real estate far outpaced inflation — but the ride was brutal: its worst drop was 32%. Figures in U.S. dollars.
Base 100 since 2013
Why compare Chicago home prices (US$/m²) and U.S. inflation (CPI-U)
Chicago is the largest Midwest metro and typically a mid-tier market, more affordable per square meter than the coastal giants despite being a major financial, transport and corporate hub. The wider metro spans dense lakefront neighborhoods and a vast suburban ring, which holds the typical price down relative to supply-constrained coastal cities. Chicago was among the markets hit hard by the 2008 housing crash, and its recovery was slower than in many Sun Belt and coastal metros, a pattern the per-square-meter history reflects.
Returns by window
| Window | Chicago home prices (US$/m²) | U.S. inflation (CPI-U) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 6% | 4% |
| 5 years | 19% | 24% |
| 10 years | 45% | 39% |
| since 2013 | 171% | 46% |
The price of return: risk
| Asset | Annual volatility | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago real estate | 22% | -32% |
| Inflation (CPI) | 1% | -2% |
$10,000 in each, since 2013
| Asset | Value today |
|---|---|
| Chicago real estate | $27,079 |
| Inflation (CPI) | $14,553 |
Frequently asked questions
Did Chicago real estate beat inflation?
Over the period, Chicago real estate returned 171% while U.S. consumer prices rose 46%. The gap is what the asset earned beyond simply keeping pace with the dollar.
Does this account for the dollar losing value?
Yes. The inflation line is U.S. CPI, the measure of how much purchasing power the dollar lost over the same period. Returns above that line are gains in real terms.
Does a higher return mean a better investment?
Not on its own. A higher return came with higher risk here — the volatility and the largest drop on this page show how much the value swung along the way.
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Descriptive, educational content computed from official public data. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.